In the weeks after February 2022, Western capitals launched what they called an economic war against the Kremlin. The sanctions packages were historic in scope: central bank reserves frozen, major banks cut off from SWIFT, personal asset freezes and travel…
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More than two years into the most extensive sanctions regime ever imposed on a major economy, one fact is unmistakable: the Russian political elite has not fractured. No wave of defections has materialized. No oligarch uprising has forced a policy…
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The Adaptation Economy When the first rounds of Western sanctions hit Moscow in 2014, policymakers in Washington, Brussels, and London shared a common conviction: economic pain would force Russia’s oligarchs and political class to reconsider their alignment with the Kremlin.…
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The Sanctions Paradox When the West unleashed its unprecedented sanctions regime against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, policymakers in Washington, Brussels, and London spoke with confident certainty about the intended effects. The measures would squeeze the Russian elite, turn…
Merz’s First Hundred Days: Why Germany’s Election Verdict Matters More Than You Think
The Election Nobody Quite Expected Friedrich Merz arrived at the chancellery in March 2025 with a mandate that looked cleaner on paper than it felt in practice. The CDU/CSU secured roughly 28.5% of the vote on February 23, capturing what…